Brazil evaluates retaliation to U.S. trade measures

In brief

On August 13, 2026, the Brazilian government began the analysis of the framework, under the Economic Reciprocity Act, of the measures adopted by the United States under Section 301. The process does not imply the immediate adoption of countermeasures, but the formal evaluation of a possible response based on Brazilian legislation. If implemented, the measures could cover trade in goods, services, investments and intellectual property rights. The initiative could impact companies that import U.S. goods or services, use U.S. technology, software, or licenses, integrate supply chains between the two countries, or maintain investments related to the U.S. market. There is, for now, no definition on a possible response, while the government prioritizes diplomatic consultations and bilateral negotiations.

Recommended actions

• Map exposure to potential Brazilian countermeasures. Identify dependencies on U.S.-origin or U.S.-linked goods, inputs, services, technology, software, licenses, intellectual property, and investments. Why: countermeasures may affect different forms of trade and economic concessions, not just goods.
• Assess alternatives and contingency measures. Review suppliers, technologies, trade routes, and substitute solutions, as well as implementation costs and timelines. Why: the ability to replace affected products or services may determine operational continuity and the extent of the impact.
• Prepare evidence on the effects of potential countermeasures. Gather data on employment, investments, reliance on inputs, and economic impacts. Why: this information may help demonstrate the effects of the measures and support requests for exclusions or specific treatment.
• Define priorities and an engagement strategy. Identify the interests that should be preserved and the most effective approach for advocacy. Why: submissions with clear objectives, supporting evidence, and practical proposals are generally more useful to the decision-making process.
• Prepare in advance for a potential public consultation. Organize arguments, documents, and data to support requests for exclusions, scope adjustments, or less burdensome alternatives. Why: consultation periods may be limited, making early preparation essential.
• If directly affected by U.S. measures, document the losses incurred. Quantify impacts on exports, prices, volumes, contracts, investments, employment, and supply chains. Why: this information may support the Brazilian government’s assessment of the extent of the measures’ effects and the calibration of a potential response. This recommendation applies only to directly affected sectors and companies.

What can happen next:

• Negotiated solution. Brazil and the United States can reach an understanding that mitigates or eliminates the effects of the measures under discussion and makes the adoption of countermeasures unnecessary.
• Recognition of the framework without immediate application of measures. Gecex may conclude that the legal requirements for a response are present, but its preparation or adoption may be suspended, modified or postponed due to diplomatic consultations.
• Preparation of countermeasures proposal. In case of a positive decision on the framework, a working group may be established to prepare a proposal, including the possible participation of the private sector.
• Public consultation and final decision. The preliminary proposal must be submitted to public consultation before the subsequent deliberation of Gecex and the final decision by the Strategic Council of Camex.

The calibration of any response will be decisive. To produce negotiating pressure without causing excessive damage to the country itself, countermeasures must consider their effectiveness in relation to U.S. interests and their possible costs for importers, consumers, investors, and Brazilian production chains.

How the process will work:

The Executive Secretariat of Camex must prepare, within 30 days, extendable once for an equal period, a report on the framing of the U.S. measures in the hypotheses provided for in the Economic Reciprocity Law.

After receiving the report, Gecex will have an equivalent period, also extendable once for an equal period, to deliberate on the classification of the claim and the possibility of adopting countermeasures.

If the decision is positive, a working group may be established to prepare a proposal for countermeasures. The preliminary proposal must be submitted to public consultation for up to 30 days. Once this stage is completed, Gecex will deliberate on the proposal.

The final decision will be made by Camex’s Strategic Council, within 60 days from the submission of the proposal by Gecex, a period that can be extended once for an equal period. The review, elaboration or adoption of countermeasures may be influenced, suspended or modified in the light of developments in diplomatic consultations and negotiations.

Our assessment:

The opening of the process is a relevant trade policy move, but it does not represent the automatic start of retaliation. The Brazilian government maintains, in parallel, bilateral negotiations, action in multilateral forums and the preparation of a possible response based on national legislation.

For most companies, the immediate risk does not stem from the U.S. measures examined by the government, but from the countermeasures that Brazil may eventually adopt. Therefore, the priority measure is to identify dependencies in relation to goods, services, technology, licenses, investments and other US interests that can be achieved by a Brazilian response.

Companies directly affected by Section 301 have an additional concern: documenting the losses caused by the United States measures, so that these effects can be considered in the government’s assessment. In both cases, the timely participation of the private sector will be important for any response to produce effective pressure on U.S. interests without imposing disproportionate costs on the Brazilian economy.

If a countermeasure has a direct and significant impact, affected companies may also consider challenging it through administrative or judicial proceedings, particularly in cases involving procedural defects, lack of proper justification, illegality, or disproportionality. The availability of such challenges will depend on the specific design of the measure and the particular circumstances involved.

The composition of possible countermeasures will depend on economic and operational information that is largely in the hands of the companies themselves. Early preparation, therefore, does not presuppose that there will be retaliation; It allows the private sector to be in a position to influence the design of measures if the process moves forward.